The turmoil between Iran and Israel escalated further on Wednesday night, with ongoing attacks from both sides. In this context, U.S. President Donald Trump remarked, “I may do it, I may not do it,” when inquired about potential U.S. involvement in the conflict. BBC experts and correspondents have provided insights into the situation and its possible ramifications.
Why is Israel Bombing Iran Now?
Israel asserts that it has been forced into this action due to Iran’s accelerated pursuit of nuclear weapons in recent months. Diplomatic efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions have faltered, prompting Israel to consider its strikes as a last resort against what it perceives as an existential threat. Israeli officials argue that if Iran were to acquire a nuclear weapon, it would use it, citing the nation’s past declarations to annihilate Israel. However, this assessment is not universally accepted in the region and differs from reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency and U.S. intelligence, which do not indicate an imminent Iranian nuclear weapon production.
Where Can Civilians in Iran Go?
The Israel Defense Forces have issued evacuation notices for some areas of Tehran. However, with a population of 10 million, the city is densely populated, leading to severe traffic jams as residents attempt to flee north, where they believe safety resides. Notably, strikes have occurred in those regions as well, leaving civilians with limited safe options. The Iranian government has opened metro stations around the clock for shelter, but evacuation on such a scale remains impractical.
If the U.S. Enters the Conflict, Would Iran Target U.S. Facilities?
The implications for the U.S. could be significant, as approximately 40,000 to 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed at 19 sites across the Middle East. Additionally, there are personnel in Cyprus and a naval facility in Bahrain. The extent and nature of U.S. involvement will influence whether Iran targets these locations.
Can Iran’s Proxies Assist in Its Conflict with Israel?
Currently, the capability of Iran’s proxies to support its military efforts against Israel appears limited. Israel has weakened key groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah since the latter’s attack on October 7, 2023. Furthermore, Syria is no longer a reliable ally for Iran due to the current political landscape, and the Houthis in Yemen are also considerably constrained.
Who Leads Iran and What Is His Support Base?
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wields significant power in Iran, surpassing that of the president, particularly regarding military command and international negotiations. However, public support for him is fragmented, and divisions within Iranian society have deepened following large protests against the government two years ago. While there are ardent supporters of the regime, including within the armed forces, many others call for change.
What If the Iranian Regime Falls?
The future of Iran post-regime change remains uncertain. Currently, there is no unified opposition poised to take over. Candidates, such as Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah, attract varying levels of support and opposition, with questions about whether a return to monarchy is desired by the populace.
What Is Fordo and Its Significance?
Fordo, located about 200 kilometers south of Tehran, is one of Iran’s primary enrichment sites, strategically built into a mountain for security. The site has already faced Israeli attacks aimed at its missile and air defense systems, with the objective of rendering it more vulnerable.
How Close Is Iran to Developing a Nuclear Weapon?
The precise status of Iran’s nuclear ambitions is known only to a select group within the regime. Recently, the UN’s nuclear watchdog reported Iran’s failure to comply with non-proliferation obligations, noting it has amassed sufficient uranium enriched to 60%. Despite Israel’s claims of Iran nearing nuclear capability, U.S. intelligence has indicated no active weaponization efforts. Iran continues to assert that its nuclear program is strictly for peaceful purposes.