PROTARAS, Cyprus — Since the onset of the conflict last Friday, Iran has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles at Israel, with only 20 successfully hitting urban locations, according to data provided to The Post by Israeli military officials. Israeli sources had previously estimated that Tehran possessed around 2,000 missiles prior to initiating Operation Rising Lion, indicating that nearly a quarter of its arsenal has been deployed in just six days.
The low success rate, with 400 missiles resulting in only 20 hits, can largely be attributed to the effectiveness of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. This sophisticated network of air-defense technologies works cohesively to intercept missiles before they can reach Israeli territory.
In addition to the missiles, Iran has launched 1,000 drones, yet none have reached their intended target in Israel, as reported by Israeli military officials. Just 200 of these drones managed to penetrate Israeli airspace.
“All were either intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Navy, or fell short before reaching Israel,” noted an Israeli military official.
The repercussions of the strikes have resulted in 26 fatalities and over 500 injuries, according to figures from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). However, an Israeli military spokesperson stated that the overall casualty numbers “are far below what the IDF anticipated when it planned the operation against Iran.”
Recent reports from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America indicate a significant reduction in Iran’s missile launches over the course of the conflict. After an initial barrage of 200 missiles on June 14, the number sank to 75 the following day and fell further to 30 on June 15 and 65 on June 16.
“Iran’s missile stockpile could be reduced to less than 500 ballistic missiles by June 23,” the report warned. “Iran likely only has the ability to launch two to six more large barrages before it needs to conserve its launchers and stockpile.”
The diminishing number of available launchers is compounded by Israel’s targeted strikes, which have reportedly destroyed around 40% of Iran’s estimated total of 360 missile launchers since June 12.
“The longer the exchange of fire continues, the more likely Iran will find itself unable to execute large ballistic missile barrages as it loses both launchers and missiles, while also aiming to preserve its capabilities for the future,” the report concluded.
Israel’s proven effectiveness at targeting Iranian launchers may partially explain the dramatic decrease in the number of missiles launched daily, as each missile launch reveals the launcher’s location.
“Iran faces a dilemma because each missile launch gives away the location of a missile launcher,” the report stated. “Even if Iran utilizes mobile launch platforms, persistent Israeli surveillance and air operations enable the identification, tracking, and targeting of these launchers.”