For more than 30 years, Iran has developed a network of proxy groups to extend its influence beyond its borders, successfully deterring adversaries while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei consolidated power. Direct military strikes within Iran remained largely unthinkable. This perception of invulnerability dramatically changed on June 13, when Israel executed a surprise attack deep within Iranian territory, dismantling Tehran’s sense of security and its carefully maintained façade of strength.
The strikes resulted in the deaths of prominent military leaders and nuclear scientists, with many killed in their homes alongside family members. According to Hossein Kermanpour, head of the information center at the Ministry of Health, the assaults caused 627 fatalities, including 49 women and 13 children. Subsequently, the United States joined Israel’s offensive on Sunday by targeting three nuclear facilities, only to declare a ceasefire the following day.
This unprecedented situation has left many Iranians, both domestically and internationally, concerned that the country’s leadership, now feeling wounded in pride and defensive capabilities, may retaliate by cracking down more severely on dissent and adopting a more aggressive stance in both domestic and foreign affairs.
Israel and the US had suggested that regime change could stem from their military actions, aiming to foster a government in Iran more favorable to them. However, the regime’s ability to maintain stability has led it to declare victory instead. Iran’s leadership has responded resiliently, replenishing its ranks and intensifying its crackdown on individuals perceived as complicit with Israel.
Iran’s increasingly paranoid regime is likely to rule with an iron fist at home, fearing any collaboration with external adversaries. On June 13, crowds gathered at the site of a residential explosion caused by Israeli strikes in Tehran.
‘Regime with a Wounded Soul’
Last year, Iran elected reformist leader Masoud Pezeshkian, following three years of conservative governance under Ebrahim Raisi. Pezeshkian’s campaign for dialogue with adversaries was seen by many as a potential pathway to an agreement with the West and a means to reintegrate Iran into the global community.
During the twelve-day conflict, Iran retaliated against Israel with retaliatory strikes that inflicted significant damage on major cities such as Tel Aviv, resulting in 28 deaths. This defensive action garnered some domestic praise even from critics of the regime. Ali, a 36-year-old Iranian, noted, “People are at the moment feeling very nationalistic. We just went through a war together that everyone feels was unjustified, so the government has a degree of goodwill.”
Yet, the future remains uncertain, with rising fears of intense crackdowns on reformist voices as the regime seeks to eliminate perceived alignment with Israel. Reports indicate that by Wednesday, authorities had arrested 700 individuals accused of being “mercenaries of Israel,” as reported by the state-affiliated Fars News Agency.
Neda, a 45-year-old Iranian, expressed concern that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would consolidate even more power in the wake of this unrest, especially if the current leadership appears disorganized and is perceived to relinquish control.
Khamenei reportedly remains secluded in a bunker with limited communication since the ceasefire went into effect on Tuesday. Neda conveyed her apprehension, stating, “They (government) were strong in their show of force (against Israel) and that will at least for some time play well. There’s no telling if the gains we made…will remain.” All sources spoke to CNN under anonymity, fearing for their safety.
Arash Azizi, an Iran expert based in New York City, indicated that many Iranians are anxious about a regime feeling wounded and threatening to constrict political expression further. He noted the ineffectiveness of the Iranian opposition overseas, suggesting that civil society at home remains defensive.
The responses from conservative factions suggest that the recent attacks have emboldened hardliners, who believe engaging with the West is futile and that Iran should prioritize military self-reliance. The outcome for reformers remains in jeopardy, as experts assert that the leadership’s shift may disadvantage moderates seeking engagement with foreign powers.
“The attacks have bolstered hardliners who argue that diplomacy with the West is futile and that Iran must remain militarily self-reliant,” explained Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC. He continued, “In the short term, hardliners are likely to prevail. But that may shift depending on the broader outcome of the conflict and whether diplomatic efforts with the US pay off.”
On Sunday, the US’s involvement in strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities escalated tensions, yet President Trump announced a ceasefire, affirming the regime’s survival, which he believed could have chaotic implications if altered.
“The broader lesson is that the Islamic Republic is not invincible, but neither is it easily toppled,” Toossi remarked. Public sentiment after the conflict signified unity among Iranians, who perceived the attacks as unjustified. “Whether people are supporters of our government or not, there is an anger we feel about Trump and Israel,” Reza, a 35-year-old Iranian man, stated.
Khamenei’s enduring political future also raises questions. As the region’s longest-serving leader, he has maintained authority through stringent measures since at least 2005. Experts suggest frustration might be brewing in the populace toward Khamenei’s leadership style, which some describe as overly cautious in crises and overly aggressive otherwise.
“There is a strong desire from the Revolutionary Guards and military forces in Iran to double down and adopt a much more entrenched position,” Vaez explained, predicting further militarization and potentially pursuing nuclear capability as a deterrent. He also anticipated that paranoia regarding infiltration could trigger a top-level purge, resulting in hardliners seizing greater power.
Despite Pezeshkian’s public engagement, including attending an anti-war protest in Tehran, the reformists are not exempt from public ire. A 42-year-old woman articulated her frustrations, saying, “They’ve put us in a quagmire. This happened on a reformists’ watch.” Experts agree that while the regime’s image of invincibility is shattered, the implications of this change remain uncertain and depend on the response of Iranian leadership and international powers following the recent conflict.
The assurance that many Iranians felt within their country’s borders has been considerably undermined. “The Islamic Republic had one social contract with society, which is that it deprived them of all freedoms… in return for providing security,” Vaez noted. “Now, that image has been shattered in the eyes of the Iranian people.”