A groundbreaking study has revealed that everyday financial behaviors, as reflected in routine banking data, can indicate early signs of cognitive decline and potential financial vulnerability among older adults, possibly up to ten years before formal intervention is necessary.
Published in JAMA Network Open, the research was led by Professor John Gathergood from the University of Nottingham’s School of Economics, in collaboration with David Leake from Lloyds Banking Group.
The study examined anonymized banking data from over 66,000 people, comparing 16,742 individuals who had registered for power of attorney due to financial capacity loss with a control group of 50,226 matched individuals who did not report any such loss.
The results uncovered subtle yet significant shifts in financial behavior, including a decrease in spending on travel and hobbies, an increase in household bills, fewer online banking logins, and more frequent requests for PIN resets, emerging several years prior to formal identification of financial capacity loss.
“These patterns provide the first large-scale evidence that behavioral data held by financial institutions can reveal the early emergence of cognitive decline,” stated Professor Gathergood, highlighting the study’s implications. He emphasized the importance of responsible usage of anonymized banking data to safeguard vulnerable members of society.
Key findings indicate that individuals showing signs of cognitive decline were:
– 9.6 percentage points less likely to spend on travel five years before the power of attorney registration.
– 7.9 percentage points less likely to invest in hobbies such as gardening.
– 1.0 fewer online banking logins monthly.
– More prone to reporting fraud, losing cards, and requesting PIN resets.
The research suggests that conditions like early-stage Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias may lead to diminished participation in self-care and out-of-home activities, often replaced by greater spending on home-based necessities. Additionally, the decline in financial activity included increased financial errors and susceptibility to fraud.
The authors advocate for more research to integrate financial behavior data with health and social care pathways, ensuring stringent data privacy protections.
The study highlights the need for raised public awareness regarding power of attorney registration, which remains low in the UK despite increasing concern over dementia-related financial impacts.
Professor Gathergood concluded, “As a society, we need to better support people at risk of losing financial capacity—long before the signs become obvious to friends or family. Early detection through financial behavior may be a key part of that solution. By better understanding behavioral markers of declining capacity, banks can explore how to strengthen safeguards for customers.”
For further details, refer to: Anna Trendl et al, Early Behavioral Markers of Loss of Financial Capacity, JAMA Network Open (2025). DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.15894.